Housing market: Part 8 - A very long-term look at housing prices and population
Housing market: Part 8 - A very long-term look at housing prices and population
Looking at long-term real house prices and population growth trends in the UK, USA, and Amsterdam.
In my last post on the housing market, I wrote that:
“This post will, hopefully, conclude our discussion of the housing market.”
However, it seems like my research on this topic has struck a nerve. Some of your private responses to me included counterpoints like:
I should stick to valuing businesses because I clearly don’t understand real estate.
The US real estate bubble is isolated. It is not a global bubble, and conditions are entirely different to ‘08.
Population growth and limited supply ensure prices only go up in the long term.
If prices go down and you continue to hold, the ‘Bill-Gates-esque’ uber-rich will buy up all the land and prices will recover and surpass previous levels.
Out of these counterpoints, there are two main ideas I wanted to extract and explore:
What have house prices done across the world over the very long term?
What is the relationship between population growth and real house price growth?