Private credit and why employment bounced back
Private credit and why employment bounced back
The inflation-deflation tightrope that central bankers must walk
Much has been made of the resilience of the global economy and how quickly it bounced back following the first COVID lockdown. The narrative has increasingly become one of pent up consumer demand, higher savings rates, and underlying business strength. Furthermore, there has been a lot of speculation as to why unemployment has come back so quickly and why, despite the uncertainty of the ongoing pandemic, so many people are changing jobs.
The following chart plots the number of private-sector job openings in the U.S. going back to 2001. We can see that the number of job openings steadily declined following the tech bubble collapse before rising steadily until 2007. The number declined through 2007 and 2008 before bottoming out in April 2009. Then from April 2009 to December 2018, the number rose steadily before beginning to decline again until the number of job openings fell off a cliff as the pandemic lockdowns were rolled out in March 2020. However, since then, the number of job openiβ¦