What recession?
Doomsayers have gone quiet because the economy is looking better and better.
It was the recession that never was. For the past year or so, pundits have been screaming that a recession is right around the corner. Rates were rising, the yield curve inverted, and banks collapsed. But, still, there isn’t a cloud on America’s economic horizon. What happened? The economy has been far more robust than talking heads thought. Economic growth and the jobs market are still strong, and inflation is falling. Much to the chagrin of perma-bears, those who are always downbeat about the economy, it looks like it’ll be a soft landing.
The probability of a recession predicted by the bond market is falling. In April, the yield curve said there was a 71% chance America would go into recession within a year. Now, the yield curve is moving the other way, and that probability has dropped to 56%—and it’s falling.